From junior to elite in soccer: exploring the relative age effect and talent selection in Spanish Youth National Teams

Abstract

The implications of relative age grouping in sport are known as the Relative Age Effect (RAE). This study has the twofold purpose of analyzing RAE in Spanish youth national soccer teams and examining the prediction value of being selected for national youth teams to be a professional. The sample was composed of 548 players divided into five groups. A descriptive analysis of distribution and participation, frequencies, mean and standard deviation, crosstabs, Sankey charts, coefficient correlation and Cohen’s effect size criteria and two regression analyses were performed. Results established that the RAE is present in U’17 to U’21 Spanish youth national teams. Talent detection and selection programs are more reliable the closer they are to adulthood, reaching a success rate of almost 100% at the U’21 stage. The selection of players for such programs should be delayed as much as possible, thus, preventing younger players from dropping out and those selected from thinking they have already reached their goal. To this end, they should focus on long-term improvement, not short-term performance. In addition, factors such as the RAE or the maturity level of the athletes should be monitored.