Identifying optimal zones for avocado ("Persea americana" Mill) cultivation in Iberian Peninsula: a climate suitability analysis

Abstract

In recent decades, the cultivation of avocados (Persea americana Mill) has expanded throughout the Iberian Peninsula, with most of the production occurring on the Southern Atlantic and Mediterranean Coast, as well as in the Canary Islands. This expansion is due to high demand and high prices, which have made the crop very attractive. However, climatic suitability criteria have not always been followed, putting sustainability at risk. Avocados originate from tropical and subtropical areas and have very specific climatic requirements that must be met to ensure good production. This study analyzed the key climatic variables, including winter cold damage, pollen viability and flowering and fruit set temperatures. Using daily climate data from 1975 to 2022, advanced spatial analysis techniques were applied to produce suitability maps. The results indicate that the expansion of the crop is possible in certain areas of Southern Andalusia but not in the rest of the peninsula. Variables associated with low temperatures, such as cold damage (temperatures below 0 °C in winter) and conditions unfavorable for fruit set (minimum daily temperatures below 10 °C in spring), have been identified as the most restrictive factors. Specifically, the number of days with minimum temperatures above 10 °C in March and April appears to be the most limiting climatic factor for avocado cultivation in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Andalusia and the Valencian Community have been identified as the most climatically suitable regions for avocado cultivation, with approximately 1,500,000 hectares recognized as potentially suitable for avocado production. This work provides valuable insights into the potential for sustainable agricultural intensification, the sustainability of agricultural decision-making and resilience to climate change.